Brayin Candy

Cooking the Polls

The Stone Age Press seems to create a new poll every week showing the President or the War at a new low. As we all know there are liars and there are statistics, polls are no more than statistics. There are three main problems with these so called objective polls. First, it is next to impossible now to get a representative sample of America’s opinion as we have witnessed during the past 3 "upset" elections. Second, all you are predicting is that a certain percentage of the sample have a certain opinion. They know you will trust that their sample represents the general population. What difference does a poll make that over samples people who did not vote for the President in the first place?

One of the requirements when buying an accounting degree in college was to take Graduate statistics and one of those classes was Sampling. The Prof’s favorite saying was, "your outcome is only as good as your sample" and in this case, your group percentages. The old saying, garbage in; garbage out is an absolute when it comes to sampling. A good sample is completely random, unbiased in your collection and a reflection of your population.

In today’s America is it really possible to get accurate information in a country that is very closely divided? With the widespread usage of caller ID and cell phones there is no way that a polling company can create a truly random sample. Most people that see a bulk caller name are not going to waste their time answering a probable sales call or survey. In addition with many young people having only cell phones which cannot be sampled, the quality of polls have declined dramatically. As much as 50% of some target groups are not going to answer these calls which destroys the sample validity.

The question wording and inflection of the pollcat uses when asking the questions can also skew the sample. If the question is loaded, which describes most of the poll questions you can get the answer you are looking for. Just asking if the President is doing a good job in Iraq, infers that he is not. It has been shown during actual elections that people do not talk to pollcats the way they do in the privacy of a voting booth. The PC answer is always to vote against Republicans if you are an independent. A point or two in a close poll will be magnified dramatically.

The recent poll showing President Bush with a 44% approval rating and a 3% margin, means that his actual is between 41 and 47% and likely towards the higher. With a winning percentage of 51% it is highly unlikely that 7-10% have changed their minds. It is more likely an error or a pollster/snooze organization seeking a result they want.

If America voted 51-48% an honest poll would use these same percentages. Of course if that were the mix it is not hard to predict what the outcome would be. Rather these pollcats use every other ratio in the book and usually weight the polls toward the DemocRats, as if they won. If that is the case nobody expects the voters who voted against GW to suddenly change their minds. Why do the pollsters continue to give more weight to the group who doesn’t like him in the first place? Simple, they are getting the numbers they are going after.

Fortunately, George Bush doesn’t govern by poll. In an age when Republicans amazingly bounce 10-15% in the so called polls right before an election, why should they give an ABDNC poll the time of day. More to the point, why should President Bush care what the people who voted and campaigned against him think? He should treat them with the same contempt that they have shown him. If the people who voted with him were to change their opinion, he should pay attention, but for those who ran a nasty campaign against him; forget it; they Lost. If pollcats really wanted to see if there has been a change of opinion they should only poll Republicans who voted him in.

The polls today are as fraudulent and inaccurate as PravdABDNC. There is no way to get a completely random sample that represents the population. With the impossibilities getting accurate data, it lends itself to biased polls and pollsters. This is what we are seeing on a daily basis from the Stone Age Press who’s credibility is in the morgue. As long as GW’s supporters are still with him, he has nothing to be concerned with. To pretend these polls can reflect voters opinions within 5-10 points let alone 1 or 2 is a trip back to Woodstock. The polls today are nothing but a tool in the empty Rat toolbox.

Pray for W and Our Freedom Fighters